Red Light, Green Light
Across real estate, an increase to borrowing costs means a reduction in operating cash flow, reducing the inherent value of the real estate asset.
It is no surprise then that the demand for investment real estate, including pre-construction condominiums, would compress in a rising interest rate environment. In the case of Toronto’s pre-construction market, the adjustment to demand has been severe - sales were down 71% in Q1 2024 compared to the 10-year Q1 average.
Economics 101 tells us that to increase demand, simply reduce pricing. However, while we have seen a modest correction in pre-construction pricing generally speaking, developers are reticent to discount further. Apart from the obvious implication of a reduction in profits, the rationale is much more nuanced, with far reaching long-term implications for the broader housing market.
Given the surge in pre-construction demand from 2016 – 2021, developers snapped up land to secure a pipeline of future projects. As demand for pre-condominium units seemed endless, new, unexperienced participants entered the development industry, leading to fierce competition for land. Like every asset, as competition and liquidity increase, so too does pricing. Starting in 2018, values for development land exploded. While this was not an issue when condominium prices were increasing, the recalibration of intrinsic land values is now among the leading impediments to finding equilibrium in the pre-construction condominium market. We will explain.
Given the cost of a development project, developers rely on banks to finance construction. To qualify for a construction loan, a developer requires:
1) condominium pre-sales to cover the value of the construction loan and
2) adequate project profitability to provide a margin of safety to the lender.
There are five components that dictate a project’s profitability and its ability to be financed, four of which are completely out of a developer’s control:
- Sales pricing – needs to adjust downwards to support an increase in demand
- Construction costs – stabilizing following 5 years of double digit increases however, not coming down meaningfully
- Taxes – meaningfully increasing at ~20% per annum
- Financing costs – increasing because of higher interest rates
- Land purchase – developer has discretion in terms of what they buy; that said, land sellers continue to benchmark values to top of market trades
Without relief in construction costs, taxes, or financing, developers are not able to reduce pre-sale pricing at risk of not securing construction financing. A sold-out building is no good to anyone if it cannot be built.
Going forward, developers are forced to recalibrate what they can pay for land. As can be seen in the chart below, at a high-level, the intrinsic value of development land has decreased by 50%+ in the last three years. Just like we are seeing in the pre-construction condominium market, land sellers are not facing market reality, leading to a drop off in land transaction activity. Transaction volume of high-density land is on track to be 71% lower than the levels seen in 2022.
Logic would tell us that this circumstance is not a welcome outcome for a city that is undergoing one of the most extreme housing crises globally. While we wish we had the power to affect a solution, absent significant government intervention, Vantage is positioning itself to succeed in the context of the current market environment.
Vantage believes that over the long-term, markets are efficient. Given the confluence of tailwinds supporting housing demand across Ontario, Vantage remains bullish on the case for development of new housing. What we don’t know is when the variables at play will re-align to permit sales and construction to resume. We would question anyone who claims they do have this answer.
To that end, Vantage is focused on controlling what we can control, emphasizing the importance of being prudent investors as we pursue new land opportunities. Vantage embodies the adage of “purchase price is permanent, financing is temporary” meaning we are focused on buying land at good prices and finance our investments with a capital structure that is suited to the prevailing market environment.
We are eager to build our pipeline of development projects but are doing so in a disciplined manner. This is a mindset that is core to Vantage’s values and a tenant of how we approach all aspects of our business.